LNG could add 300 bcm of export capacity by 2030 that demand may not absorb

By 2030, the LNG market could add around 300 bcm of new annual export capacity, increasing available global supply by roughly 50%. But under the IEA’s Stated Policies Scenario, demand may not absorb it all, leaving a potential 65 bcm overhang as renewables, nuclear and efficiency limit gas upside in key markets.

A supply overhang of that size would have consequences beyond gas markets. It would lower the price of the fossil alternative that green fuels compete against, and it would leave investors holding assets that were financed on demand assumptions that did not materialise. Both effects widen the premium that lower-carbon fuels have to clear.

For shipping and industrial buyers, the lesson is that waiting for the green premium to disappear on its own is not a strategy. The premium has to be shared across the value chain by the parties who benefit from the reduction. That is the role of an inset credit, and it works regardless of where the gas price settles.