REDD+ credits were oversold, but most projects cut deforestation

A peer-reviewed study of 44 REDD+ projects found credits were oversold 10.7×. However, 4 in 5 projects genuinely cut deforestation. The problem was with measurement methodologies, not the conservation mission. Addressing these challenges can help improve credibility of forest carbon credits. nature.com

The study separates two things that are often confused: whether the activity worked and whether the accounting was right. The conservation work mostly succeeded, while the credits mostly overstated it. That is a measurement and methodology failure, and it is fixable in a way that a failure of the underlying activity would not be.

It is also a reminder of why Carbon3 measures reductions where they occur, inside a supply chain, against a baseline the buyer can inspect. Insetting does not remove the need for rigorous accounting, but it shortens the distance between the activity and the claim, which is where most of the overstatement in offset markets has crept in.