When cutting beats buying: the balance-sheet case for insetting

Our 2026 white paper models four value-chain archetypes from 2025 to 2050: apparel and consumer goods, energy and power, food and agriculture, and steel-intensive manufacturing. In each one it compares two ways of meeting a net-zero target. Offsetting keeps emitting and buys credits to cover the gap. Insetting pays for real cuts inside the supply chain.

The model favours insetting in most sectors today, and in all four once carbon carries a real price. The break-even credit price, above which cutting in-house is cheaper than buying credits, comes out at about USD 20 a tonne for clothing, 24 for energy, 35 for food and 72 for steel. Forward outlooks for high-quality credits already sit at or above those levels.

The paper also shows why offsetting builds a liability that grows every year, while insetting turns the same spend into an investment that pays back. It closes with a three-step pathway for leadership teams: map and prioritise, contract and finance, then verify and claim.