Simulation
What this shows: how inset trading could play out for one company and for the whole economy, over seven simulated years.
In this simulation, companies cut 922 million tonnesof emissions in seven years.
That is as much as Germany emits in about 1.4 years.
1,172 companies pay their own suppliers €61 billion for these cuts.
Simulated, illustrative assumptions0.4%Of the world's yearly emissions, cut in Year 7 aloneSimulated
558 million tonnesRetired against Scope 3 targets, Years 1 to 7Simulated
1,172Companies taking partSimulated
Stretch scenarioSBTi net-zero standard V2.0: validations open 1 February 2027
In this stretch scenario, companies cut 2.36 billion tonnesof emissions in seven years.
That is as much as Germany emits in about 3.6 years.
3,000 companies pay their own suppliers €175 billion for these cuts, at €88 per tonne.
Simulated, illustrative assumptions0.9%Of the world's yearly emissions, cut in Year 7 aloneSimulated
1.43 billion tonnesRetired against Scope 3 targets, Years 1 to 7Simulated
3,000Companies taking partSimulated
What has to be true
- 3,000 companies
- 2.6 times today's plan, each trading as much as today.
- €88 per tonne
- The EU carbon price at auction on 29 October 2026.
- Buyers count supplier cuts
- Claim treatment depends on the applicable reporting framework.
Already happening
- CDP: buyers and their suppliers cut 43 million tonnes of emissions in 2023. Source
- Walmart: more than 5,900 suppliers signed up to Project Gigaton, with projects expected to pass 1 billion tonnes, more than six years early. Source
- EU carbon auction, 29 October 2026: €88.05 per tonne. Source
This is a stretch: credits retired in Year 7 alone are about 7.6 times what CDP measured for 2023.
New here? A 4-step tour explains the page.
Assumptions
Simulated, illustrative assumptions- Buyer's Scope 3 at the start
- 2 million tCO₂e a year, illustrative
- 1.5°C path
- 4.2% cut a year (SBTi)
- Credit price
- €78 per tCO₂e
- Companies
- 1,172
- Period
- Years 1 to 7, simulated
- Carbon3 fee
- Commission on trades
SBTi and net-zero targets
What does this mean for a company's SBTi and net-zero targets?
A shipping company that buys inset credits from its fuel supplier covers 3% of its 1.5°C Scope 3 path by Year 7.
Simulated, illustrative assumptions1%Of its Scope 3 cut in Year 7, through inset credits
3%Of the cut a 1.5°C path asks for by Year 7
0.2 yearsOf 1.5°C cuts gained, at 4.2% a year
Scope 3 cut per year, tCO₂e
Simulated| Year | Cut through inset credits | 1.5°C path |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 1,000 | 84,000 |
| Year 2 | 10,000 | 168,000 |
| Year 3 | 14,000 | 252,000 |
| Year 4 | 12,000 | 336,000 |
| Year 5 | 12,000 | 420,000 |
| Year 6 | 14,000 | 504,000 |
| Year 7 | 16,000 | 588,000 |
When a supplier in the buyer's own chain reduces emissions, the buyer's Scope 3 goes down through lower supplier emissions data. The inset credit is the proof of that emissions reduction and who funded it, and it is not counted a second time. Claim treatment depends on the applicable reporting framework.
More than 12,000 companies have near-term climate targets approved by SBTi, the Science Based Targets initiative. SBTi asks for a Scope 3 target when the supply chain makes up 40% or more of a company's emissions.
Who wins
Suppliers, buyers and governments all gain from the same tonne cut.
Suppliers€61 billionEarned from their emissions cuts, Years 1 to 7One fuel supplier alone earns €43.5 million.
Buyers€78A known price per tonne cutClose to the EU carbon price, which averaged €74 per tCO₂e in 2025.
Governments206 million tonnesLower emissions in Year 7 aloneReal cuts in industry, paid for by companies, help countries meet their national climate targets.
The registry records each retirement, so each reduction is claimed only once.
How the money flows
The buyer pays its supplier for verified reductions, and Carbon3 records every credit.
For the economy
By Year 7, companies cut 206 million tonnes of emissions and pay €14 billion for it in a single year.
Emissions reductions verified per year, tCO₂e
Simulated| Year 1 | 25 Mt |
|---|---|
| Year 2 | 88 Mt |
| Year 3 | 109 Mt |
| Year 4 | 139 Mt |
| Year 5 | 165 Mt |
| Year 6 | 190 Mt |
| Year 7 | 206 Mt |
Paid for inset credits per year, €
Simulated| Year 1 | €1.9bn |
|---|---|
| Year 2 | €6.0bn |
| Year 3 | €6.5bn |
| Year 4 | €9.6bn |
| Year 5 | €11.4bn |
| Year 6 | €11.3bn |
| Year 7 | €14.4bn |
Carbon3 revenue
Carbon3 earns a commission on each trade. Move the sliders to test other scenarios.
In this scenario, Carbon3 revenue reaches €275 million in Year 7.
Simulated, illustrative assumptionsCarbon3 revenue, Years 1 to 7: €1.2 billion
| Year 1 | €12.6m |
|---|---|
| Year 2 | €90.8m |
| Year 3 | €141m |
| Year 4 | €181m |
| Year 5 | €217m |
| Year 6 | €249m |
| Year 7 | €275m |
How we calculated this
- Data
- Simulated trades between 1,172 demo companies on the Carbon3 platform, Years 1 to 7, snapshot of 30 October 2026. No real company activity is shown, and companies are named by sector only.
- Emissions cut
- Emissions reductions verified and issued as inset credits. Inset credits are issued to the project developer after independent verification, and Carbon3 records them in its registry. One inset credit stands for 1 tCO₂e.
- Comparisons
- All emissions cut in Years 1 to 7 divided by Germany's yearly emissions, and Year 7 reductions divided by global yearly emissions of 57.7 billion tCO₂e. Both are real figures from the sources below.
- Climate targets
- The buyer is a simulated shipping company with an illustrative Scope 3 of 2 million tCO₂e a year at the start, close to the median of transport and logistics companies in the Carbon3 Data Hub. Its yearly cut is the inset credits it retires that year. The 1.5°C path cuts 4.2% of the starting level each year, so by Year 7 it asks for 29.4%. SBTi's near-term minimum for Scope 3 is 2.5% a year, so this path is the stricter one.
- Claims
- The registry records each retirement, so each reduction is claimed only once. Claim treatment depends on the applicable reporting framework.
- Prices
- Simulated prices run from €66 to €92 per tCO₂e, with a median of €78.
- Carbon3 revenue
- A commission on the value of each simulated trade. No fee to list or issue, commission only on trades and retirements.
- Projects
- Supplier projects with a stated tonnage a year. Totals over several years are divided by the years stated. Totals with no stated years, values in other units and figures above 5 million tCO₂e a year are left out until checked. Cancelled and paused projects are left out.
- Ambitious
- A stretch scenario: today's plan scaled to 3,000 companies, each trading as much as today, with every trade at €88 per tCO₂e, the EU carbon auction price on 29 October 2026.
- Scenarios
- Traded volume grows in line with the number of companies and how much each one trades. The credit price applies to every trade. Ranges are capped and make no market share claim.
- Not included
- Avoided carbon taxes, tax revenue and other policy effects are not shown. Simulated years are not calendar years, so no comparison is made with a 2030 goal.
- Real-world figures used for comparison
- Umweltbundesamt (German Environment Agency), emissions data for 2024: 649 million tCO₂e; final data, January 2026: about 650 million. Source
- UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025, table 2.1: global greenhouse gas emissions of 57.7 GtCO₂e in 2024. Source
- SBTi, Foundations of Science-based Target Setting: minimum linear annual reduction of 4.2% for 1.5°C and 2.5% for well-below 2°C; SBTi Business Ambition for 1.5°C FAQ: 4.2% a year for 1.5°C Scope 3 targets. Source
- SBTi Corporate Net-Zero Standard V1.3.1: near-term minimum of 2.5% a year for Scope 3, at least 90% cut in the long term. Source
- SBTi Target Dashboard as mirrored in the Carbon3 SBTi registry, 29 October 2026: 12,258 companies with near-term targets approved by SBTi. Source
- Carbon3 Data Hub emissions registry, 30 October 2026: median latest reported Scope 3 of 81 transport and logistics companies, 1.92 million tCO₂e. Source
- ICAP, EU ETS factsheet: average secondary market price of €74.35 per tCO₂e in 2025 (ESMA reports €74). Source
- Reuters via TradingView, 29 October 2026: the European Union auctioned 2.792 million spot carbon permits at €88.05 per tCO₂e. Source
- CDP, press release of 25 September 2024: engagement between corporate buyers and their suppliers resulted in 43 million tonnes of emissions reductions in 2023. Source
- Walmart, 21 February 2024: suppliers reported projects expected to exceed 1 billion metric tons of reductions, reaching the Project Gigaton goal more than six years early; over 5,900 suppliers signed up since 2017. Source
- SBTi Services, guide to the transition to the Corporate Net-Zero Standard V2.0: validations against V2.0 open on 1 February 2027, and validations against V1.3.1 close on 31 January 2028. Source
The Carbon3 team can walk through the model on a call.
Simulated demo data with illustrative assumptions. Not a forecast, an offer or a record of real activity.