Australia has the ore, the sun and the policy money, but not yet the offtake

Australia has the iron ore, the solar resource and growing policy support to become a major supplier of clean iron. What it does not yet have is buyers who have signed up to take the product.

What MPP and RMI found

In their September 2026 report on steel's transformation in China and Australia, Mission Possible Partnership (MPP) and RMI count more than US$8bn in announced incentives in Australia. That money covers the grid, renewables, hydrogen and clean iron, and much of it has not yet been disbursed.

So far, that support has not taken a single project to final investment decision. No clean iron has been traded. At least 10 hot briquetted iron (HBI) projects, with about 15 Mtpa of proposed capacity, need committed buyers before they can move ahead.

Why offtake is the missing piece

Policy money can lower the cost of building a plant, but lenders and investors also want to see revenue. For a new clean iron project, that usually means long-term offtake agreements with steelmakers or their customers. Without those contracts, projects stay on the drawing board, however strong the resource base.

That puts steel buyers, and the companies further down the chain that buy steel in their products, in an unusual position. Their early commitments can decide which projects get built and how quickly.

What buyers can do now

Committing to physical offtake years in advance is a big step for many buyers. Co-funding verified low-emission iron and steel in their own supply chain is another way to send a demand signal to developers today.

When that support is recorded once as inset credits, the emissions reductions stay linked to the supply chain they came from and cannot be claimed twice. Credits are issued to the project developer after independent verification, and Carbon3 records them in its registry, so developers, buyers and auditors can all see who holds each claim.

This is insetting, not offsetting. The action sits inside the steel value chain that buyers already depend on, rather than in an unrelated project elsewhere.

For Australian developers, a clear and traceable demand signal could help close the gap between announced support and real investment decisions.

Claim treatment depends on the applicable reporting framework.

Source: MPP and RMI, Steel's transformation: China and Australia (September 2026).