Heavy industry has a pipeline, not yet a committed build

Heavy industry decarbonization is moving from theory to pipeline, but not yet from pipeline to committed build. CCUS investment has grown more than 15x since 2020, yet almost 90% of announced projects still haven’t reached FID; green steel shows a similar gap, with ~$59.5B of disclosed project investment but only ~$12.7B in projects already under construction or operating.

The gap between announced and committed capital is the clearest measure of what is missing in industrial decarbonization. The technology is known and the projects are designed. What stops the final investment decision is the absence of a buyer who will pay the premium for the lower-carbon output over a term that a lender can finance against.

Downstream companies with Scope 3 targets are those buyers, whether or not they have recognized it. Forward commitments from them, structured as inset credits that allocate the verified reduction, can convert a share of the announced pipeline into projects under construction. That conversion is the point at which the transition becomes physical.