Scope 3 makes up almost all Nordic company emissions, and half of it is off track

Nordea's annual review of climate targets and progress across about 330 Nordic companies points to a persistent gap between ambition and delivery. The gap sits almost entirely in one place: Scope 3, the emissions in a company's value chain.

Where the emissions sit

Scope 3 emissions account for 97% of the combined emissions of the companies Nordea covers. Absolute Scope 3 was flat year on year, and the bank assesses that half of it is not on track with targets.

The direct picture looks better. Scope 1 and 2 emissions, from a company's own operations and the energy it buys, fell 3% in 2025 and are down 34% since 2020. Target setting is also spreading: 63% of the companies now have a Scope 1 and 2 target, up from 55%, and 54% have a Scope 3 target, up from 47%.

Why the gap now matters more

The reporting rules are about to tighten. From February 2027, version 2.0 of the corporate standard from the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) enters into force. Under it, progress has to be reported every year, and at the end of each five-year cycle an assessment of delivery is required and must be externally assured.

That changes the nature of the Scope 3 problem. A target that sits on paper is no longer enough. A company will need to show, to an auditor, what has actually changed in its value chain.

Turning value-chain progress into evidence

For most companies, Scope 3 reductions happen at suppliers, carriers and fuel producers, outside their own walls. The hard part is proving which reductions belong to which buyer, without the same tonne being claimed twice.

Financing verified emissions reductions inside a company's own value chain is insetting, not offsetting, and the difference is explained at carbon3.net/insets-vs-offsets. Credits are issued to the project developer after independent verification, and Carbon3 records them once in its registry as inset credits, so each reduction has a single owner and a single claim that an auditor can trace.

Claim treatment depends on the applicable reporting framework.

If almost all the emissions sit in Scope 3, the open question is how companies will show progress that holds up to an auditor.

Source: Nordea, "Crossing 1.5°C: Assessing Nordic climate targets and delivery" (29 October 2026).