The hydrogen projects that start by 2030 are being decided in the coming months

The hydrogen projects that start by 2030 are being decided in the coming months.

The International Energy Agency's Global Hydrogen Review 2026 makes the timing problem for low-emissions hydrogen explicit. Plants take years to build, so the projects that will be running by the end of the decade need their investment decisions soon.

The deadline in numbers

The IEA estimates that 22 Mt of potential low-emissions hydrogen production in announced projects may lose any chance to begin operation by 2030 if investment decisions are not taken by early 2027. About two-thirds of that volume is in Europe, North America and Latin America.

The pipeline is already shrinking. In a single year, the volume of projects that are committed or have strong potential to run by 2030 fell from 10 Mt to just above 6 Mt, according to the IEA.

Why the gap is demand

For developers and financiers, the missing piece is rarely the technology. It is buyers that commit to volumes firmly enough for a plant to be financed.

A project listed in an industry database is not yet a project that will produce hydrogen. It becomes one when its developer can show lenders contracted revenue and reach final investment decision. Without that, an announced project stays a pipeline entry, and the 2030 window closes on it.

What early buyers can do

To address this, buyers in the supply chains that use hydrogen can co-fund early volumes rather than wait for the market to mature. That gives developers the demand signal they need to take a final investment decision within the window the IEA describes.

Next, the emissions reduction from that early supply needs to be measured and credited to the right party. On Carbon3, the verified reduction can be recorded as inset credits and held by the buyers that funded it. Credits are issued to the project developer after independent verification, and Carbon3 records them in its registry, so the reduction is claimed only once.

For project developers, this turns buyer interest into a firmer commitment. For buyers, it links their spending to a reduction inside their own value chain, which is the basis of insetting.

Claim treatment depends on the applicable reporting framework.

Source: IEA, Global Hydrogen Review 2026.