Outlook
The North America Outlook 2026
Scope 3 finance continued through federal policy shifts for structural reasons.
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Scope 3 finance continued through federal policy shifts for structural reasons.
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Five new compliance markets in a year, priced emissions up more than 30 percent, and border adjustments already landing.
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The region already has natural and systemic advantages for lower-emission aluminum, agriculture, copper and lithium.
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Solar, wind, nuclear, electric vehicles and heat pumps are materially reducing fossil demand, but the absolute peak has not arrived.
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The sector accounts for 5 to 6 percent of global emissions and faces a $850 to $900 billion capital gap to 2030.
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Under the IEA's Stated Policies Scenario, renewables, nuclear and efficiency leave a potential 65 bcm overhang.
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Nine in ten tonnes of a food company's carbon sit on farms it does not own.
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Without economic incentives and clear policy mandates, companies see little reason to invest in more expensive sustainable alternatives.
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The transition is accelerating, but the engine remains geographically concentrated.
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A mine's Scope 1 is its customers' Scope 3.
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Grid-scale storage is scaling fast, while data centers add backup capacity to protect uptime rather than to make the grid more flexible.
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Low-carbon cement is not a technology problem.
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